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에너지 혁명이 만들 놀라운 미래 2030
■ 모든 새로운 에너지는 태양과 바람에 의해 제공된다.
■ 휘발유는 더 이상 쓰지 않으며 원자력은 구식이 된다. 천연가스와 석탄도 무용지물이 된다.
■ 분산형, 참여형 에너지 비즈니스모델이 전력회사를 파산시킨다.
■ 모든 신차 시장은 전기차가 장악한다.
■ 모든 전기차는 자율주행자동차가 된다.
■ 자동차 시장의 80%가 사라진다.
■ 고속도로의 최대 80%가 필요 없어진다.
■ 주차 공간의 80%가 필요 없어진다.
■ 자동차 소유의 개념이 사라진다.
■ 자동차 보험산업이 중단되고 택시 업계는 수요자가 사라진다.
The industrial age of energy and transportation will be over by 2030.
Maybe before. Exponentially improving technologies such as solar, electric vehicles, and autonomous (self-driving) cars will disrupt and sweep away the energy and transportation industries as we know it.
The Stone Age did not end because we ran out of rocks. It ended because a disruptive technology ushered in the Bronze Age.
The era of centralized, command-and-control, extraction-resource-based energy sources (oil, gas, coal and nuclear) will not end because we run out of petroleum, natural gas, coal, or uranium. It will end because these energy sources, the business models they employ, and the products that sustain them will be disrupted by superior technologies, product architectures, and business models. The same Silicon Valley ecosystem that created bit-based technologies that have disrupted atom-based industries is now creating bit- and electron-based technologies that will disrupt atom-based energy industries.
This is a technology-based disruption reminiscent of how the cell phone, Internet, and personal computer swept away industries such as landline telephony, publishing, and mainframe computers.
Just like those technology disruptions flipped the architecture of information and brought abundant, cheap and participatory information, the clean disruption will flip the architecture of energy and bring abundant, cheap and participatory energy. Just like those previous technology disruptions, the clean disruption is inevitable and will be swift.
The industrial age of energy and transportation is already giving way to an information technology and knowledge-based energy and transportation era.
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