Figures, Tables, Boxes and Cases xii

Acknowledgements for the third edition xiv

Preface xv

Abbreviations xx

1 Risk and crisis: definitions, debates and consequences 1

Risk as probability, threat and opportunity 2

Strategic and operational risks 4

Public sector risk 8

The development of risk management 10

Defining crises: schools of thought 11

Understanding the plethora of crisis definitions 16

The crisis management cycle 28

Conclusion 30

Discussion questions 31

2 Risk and crisis management: drivers and barriers 35

Adopting a systematic approach to risk and crises 36

Justifying risk and crisis management 38

Environmental drivers 42

Barriers to effective risk and crisis management 49

Understanding the causes of crises 51

Identifying crises before they arrive 56

Conclusion 59

Discussion questions 60

3 Risk identification and assessment 66

Risk identification 67

Risk assessment 71

Risk management capacity 74

Risk to whom? 77

Objectivist and subjectivist risk assessment 78

The precautionary principle 79

Risk management and ethics: guiding principles and rules 81

Conclusion 83

Discussion questions 84

4 Risk response and risk communication 89

Key terms 90

Risk response 90

Risk communication 97

The role of trust 100

Risk and learning in the resilient organization 103

Conclusion 105

Discussion questions 105

5 Contingency planning and crisis preparedness 110

Key terms 111

Planning and preparedness: a primer 111

A cycle of preparedness 112

Stage one: assessing capabilities 114

Ideal planning vs. public sector reality 133

Case study
5.1: fantasy documents and the queensland floods 135

Conclusion 140

Discussion questions 140

6 Managing the acute phase of crisis: adapting to uncertainty 145

Key terms 146

Acute crisis management: elementary issues 146

Functions and response patterns 148

Influences on the acute stage of crisis management 166

Conclusion 174

Discussion questions 174

7 After the crisis: evaluation, learning and accountability 178

Key terms 179

Post-crisis evaluation: learning and accountability in context 179

The challenge of evaluation: what constitutes a successful crisis response? 181

Post-crisis policy reform and learning 187

Accountability and blame games 192

Factors influencing the crisis aftermath 197

Conclusion 202

Discussion questions 203

8 Risk and crisis management in a global world 208

Key terms 209

The paradox of globalization 209

Emerging global risks 210

Growing risks 212

Interval risks 218

Speculative risks 219

Humanitarian crisis management 220

Remote crisis management 225

Transboundary crisis management 229

Conclusion 231

Discussion questions 232

Conclusion 236

Case study one: lesson learning in the shadow of the pandemic 239

The ‘what’ of pandemic lesson-learning 239

The ‘how’ of pandemic lesson-learning 242

Conclusion 243

Case study two: cyberattacks and personal data breaches 245

Managing cybersecurity risks 246

Managing ‘successful’ hacks 247

Conclusion 248

Case study three: wildfires 250

Greece 251

USA 252

Australia 254

Conclusion: the need for better risk communication 256

Index 259