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Ch. 1 Peering through the Eyepiece of Randomness: The hidden role of chance...when human beings can be outperformed by a rat
Ch. 2 The Laws of Truths and Half-Truths: The basic principles of probability and how they are abused...why a good story is often less likely to be true than a flimsy explanation Ch. 3 Finding Your Way through a Space of Possibilities: A framework for thinking about random situations...from a gambler in plague-ridden Italy to Let's Make a Deal Ch. 4 Tracking the Pathways to Success: How to count the number of ways in which events can happen, and why it matters...the mathematical meaning of expectation Ch. 5 The Dueling Laws of Large and Small Numbers: The extent to which probabilities are reflected in the results we observe...Zeno's paradox, the concept of limits, and beating the casino at roulette Ch. 6 False Positives and Positive Fallacies: How to adjust expectations in light of past events or new knowledge...mistakes in conditional probability from medical screening to the O. J. Simpson trial and the prosecutor's fallacy Ch. 7 Measurement and the Law of Errors: The meaning and lack of meaning in measurements...the bell curve and wine ratings, political polls, grades, and the position of planets Ch. 8 The Order in Chaos: How large numbers can wash out the disorder of randomness...or why 200,000,000 drivers form a creature of habit Ch. 9 Illusions of Patterns and Patterns of Illusion: Why we are often fooled by the regularities in chance events...can a million consecutive zeroes or the success of Wall Street gurus be random? Ch. 10 The Drunkard's Walk: Why chance is a morefundamental conception than causality...Bruce Willis, Bill Gates, and the normal accident theory of life Acknowledgments Notes Index |
Leonard Mlodinow
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