Author

Acknowledgements

Map 1: Taiwan and its surrounding region

Introduction: Danger, hiding in plain sight

Chapter One: Why Indo-Pacific deterrence matters

Why the stakes in Taiwan are so high

The conflict to be deterred

Chapter Two: Deterrence lessons from Ukraine

Eight lessons from Ukraine

Specific implications for China

Specific implications for Taiwan

Specific implications for the United States

Chapter Three: Yardsticks for deterrence

A world in flux

Rationality without MADness

An unstable status quo

Yardsticks for Indo-Pacific deterrence

Chapter Four: Consistent America, inconstant America

Political will: consistency and clarity of deterrence messages

Military capability and coalition credibility

The narrative yardstick

Chapter Five: Taiwan and its predicament

Military resilience

Civil resilience

Narrative clarity

Chapter Six: Coercive China, deterrent China

Deterring an intervention

Controlling the nuclear risk

Controlling the narrative

Chapter Seven: Allies and partners: the role of Japan

Japan, from self-defence to constrained deterrence

Constrained but speedy?

Many unanswered questions

Chapter Eight: The Philippines, Australia and other partners

The Philippines as an unsinkable logistics centre

Australia: far away but now committed

Other allies and bystanders, near and far

ASEAN non-centrality

Limits to the ASEAN way

Dreaming of a more balanced region

Conclusion: Nostalgic for Cold War realism

Needed: the good aspect of Cold War diplomacy

Notes

Index