Acknowledgments ix
Introduction xi
Chapter 1 The Present Demographic Scenario 1
The Current State of Global Demography 2
Where Is Everyone? 6
Age Profile 7
The Household 8
Urbanisation 10
Education 11
Employment 13
Household Income 16
Summary 19
Chapter 2 Population Change by 2032 21
Migration, Births, and Death Rates 22
Death Rates 31
The Implications for Total Population Changes 32
The Changing Age Profile 34
Summary 38
Chapter 3 Tomorrow's Household 41
The Modern Household 41
The Changing Nature of Tomorrow's Households 45
Employment and Dependency Ratios 48
Household Dependency Ratios 49
Summary 51
Chapter 4 Education and Productivity 53
The Education Index 54
The Future Demand for Education (and Standards) 56
Education's Impact on Society 60
Can India Catch Up? 62
Strategic Implications 63
Summary 65
Chapter 5 The Evolving Labour Force 67
Factors Influencing the Size and Value of the Labour Force 68
Strategic Implications 84
Summary 85
Chapter 6 Where in the World Is the Money? 87
Elephants in the Room 87
Usefulness of GDP for Evaluating the Potential of the Consumer Market of One Country Relative to Another 89
What Is the Best Way to Compare Expenditure among Countries? 91
So, Where Is the Money? 92
Relative Average Household Incomes per Capita in 2012 94
Where Will the Money Be in the Future? 96
The Future for Household Incomes 106
Deciding Whether to Save or Spend 109
Summary 111
Chapter 7 Distribution of Households by Income 113
Introduction 114
The Different Income Segments 116
Who Are the Middle Class? 127
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP): When Not to Use It 133
Strategic Implications 134
Summary 135
Chapter 8 The Changing Pattern of Consumer Expenditure 139
The Basic Relationship between Consumption and Affluence 140
Changes in Expenditure by Income Segment and Region 148
Age Group and Expenditure-Where Should Brands Target Their Efforts in Future? 156
Strategic Implications 159
Summary 160
Chapter 9 The Health Tsunami 163
The Relationship between Ageing and Demand for Health Services 165
The Cost of Health Care 171
Summary 179
Chapter 10 Behind the Hype: The Future for China and India 181
China: A Special Case 182
The Future for India 195
Strategic Implications 204
Summary 205
Chapter 11 Conclusion 207
The Old Affluent Regions 208
Eastern Europe 212
South America 213
Developing Asia 215
North Africa and the Middle East 217
India 218
China 221
To Conclude 225
About the Author 227
Index 229