Preface Only the Paranoid Survive 1
Chapter 1 Something Changed 9
What Happened to Us 18
"That Guy Is Always the Last to Know" 21
Chapter 2 A "10X" Change 25
The Six Forces Affecting a Business 27
A "10X" Force 30
The Strategic Inflection Point 32
Chapter 3 The Morphing of the Computer Industry 37
Before the Strategic Inflection Point 39
After the Strategic Inflection Point 45
Winners and Losers 48
The New Rules of the Horizontal Industry 51
Chapter 4 They're Everywhere 53
"10X" Change: Competition 56
Wal-Mart: An overwhelming force in town 56
Next: The software company 57
"10X" Change: Technology 60
Sound takes over silent movies 61
Upheaval in the shipping industry 62
The PC revolution: A tale of denial 63
"10X" Change: Customers 65
Changing tastes in cars 66
Attitude shifts 66
The double whammy in supercomputers 67
"10X" Change: Suppliers 68
Airlines flex their muscles 68
The end of second sourcing 69
"10X" Change: Complementors 71
"10X" Change: Regulation 71
The demise of patent medicines 72
The reordering of telecommunications 72
Privatization 75
Chapter 5 "Why Not Do It Ourselves?" 79
Entering Our Strategic Inflection Point 85
The Route to Survival 89
Looking Back 94
Chapter 6 "Signal" or "Noise"? 99
Is X-ray Technology a "10X" Force? 101
RISC versus CISC 103
Is It or Isn't It? 106
Helpful Cassandras 108
Avoiding the Trap of the First Version 112
Debate 114
Arguing with the Data 116
Fear 117
Chapter 7 Let Chaos Reign 121
The Touchy-Feely Issues 123
The Inertia of Success 127
Strategic Dissonance 128
Experimentation 129
The Business Bubble 131
A New Industry Map 134
Chapter 8 Rein in Chaos 137
Traversing the Valley of Death 140
Redeploying Resources 144
Leading Via Strategic Actions 146
The Clarity Imperative 152
Adjusting to the New 157
Dynamic Dialectic 160
The Other Side of the Valley 163
Chapter 9 The Internet: Signal or Noise? Threat or Promise? 165
What Is the Internet Anyway? 167
Bits and Stolen Eyeballs 172
What About Us? 177
Threat or Promise? 179
What Do We Do? 181
Chapter 10 Career Inflection Points 185
Your Career Is Your Business 188
The Mental Fire Drill 191
Timing Is Everything 193
Get in Shape for Change 194
A New World 197
Notes 199
Index 217