List of Illustrations xi
List of Maps xiii
Acknowledgements xv
Introduction xxi
Part 1 Roads to Sarajevo
1. Serbian Ghosts 3
Murder in Belgrade 3
'Irresponsible Elements' 13
Mental Maps 20
Separation 28
Escalation 33
Three Turkish Wars 42
The Conspiracy 47
Nikola Pašic Reacts 56
2. The Empire without Qualities 65
Conflict and Equilibrium 65
The Chess Players 78
Lies and Forgeries 87
Deceptive Calm 94
Hawks and Doves 99
Part 2 One Continent Divided
3. The Polarization of Europe, 1887-1907 121
Dangerous Liaison: the Franco-Russian Alliance 124
The Judgement of Paris 132
The End of British Neutrality 136
Belated Empire: Germany 141
The Great Turning Point? 152
Painting the Devil on the Wall 159
4. The Many Voices of European Foreign Policy 168
Sovereign Decision-makers 170
Who Governed in St Petersburg? 185
Who Governed in Paris? 190
Who Governed in Berlin? 197
The Troubled Supremacy of Sir Edward Grey 200
The Agadir Crisis of 1911 204
Soldiers and Civilians 214
The Press and Public Opinion 226
The Fluidity of Power 239
5. Balkan Entanglements 242
Air Strikes on Libya 242
Balkan Helter-skelter 251
The Wobbler 258
The Balkan Winter Crisis of 1912-13 266
Bulgaria or Serbia? 272
Austria's Troubles 281
The Balkanization of the Franco-Russian Alliance 293
Paris Forces the Pace 301
Poincaré under Pressure 308
6. Last Chances: Détente and Danger, 1912-1914 314
The Limits of Détente 314
'Now or Never' 326
Germans on the Bosphorus 334
The Balkan Inception Scenario 349
A Crisis of Masculinity? 358
How Open Was the Future? 361
Part 3 Crisis
7. Murder in Sarajevo 367
The Assassination 367
Flashbulb Moments 376
The Investigation Begins 381
Serbian Responses 387
What Is to Be Done? 391
8. The Widening Circle 404
Reactions Abroad 404
Count Hoyos Goes to Berlin 412
The Road to the Austrian Ultimatum 423
The Strange Death of Nikolai Hartwig 430
9. The French in St Petersburg 433
Count de Robien Changes Trains 433
M. Poincaré Sails to Russia 438
The Poker Game 443
10. Ultimatum 451
Austria Demands 451
Serbia Responds 457
A 'Local War' Begins 469
11. Warning Shots 471
Firmness Prevails 471
'It's War This Time' 475
Russian Reasons 480
12. Last Days 488
A Strange Light Falls upon the Map of Europe 488
Poincaré Returns to Paris 498
Russia Mobilizes 506
The Leap into the Dark 515
'There Must Be Some Misunderstanding' 527
The Tribulations of Paul Cambon 537
Britain Intervenes 541
Belgium 547
Boots 551
Conclusion 555
Notes 563
Index 667