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머리말 ····································································································· 1
이 책의 활용법 또는 개요 ·········································································· 2 Executive Summary ················································································ 3 Ⅰ. 서론 ··································································································· 4 Ⅱ. 브렉시트(Brexit)란 무엇인가? ······························································· 6 1. 브렉시트의 정의 ···················································································· 6 2. 브렉시트의 목적 ···················································································· 8 1) 경제적 이익의 유지 2) 규제 문제 3) 이민 및 난민의 문제 4) 탈퇴파의 입장 5) 잔류파의 입장 6) 탈퇴파와 잔류파의 간단 정리 3. 브렉시트의 향후 일정 (시나리오) ·························································· 15 4. 브렉시트가 발효되고 현재(7월)까지 영국 및 세계의 동향 ························· 16 1) 영국의 시장 상황 2) 영국의 정부 반응 3) 유럽의 주요국 시장 4) 유럽의 정부 및 기관 반응 5) 미국 시장 반응 6) 미국 정부 및 기관의 반응 7) 일본 시장 반응 8) 일본 정부 및 기관의 반응 9) 중국 시장 반응 10) 중국 정부 및 기관의 반응 5. 왜 브렉시트는 논란의 중심에 서 있는가? ················································ 32 1) EU의 입장 2) 영국의 입장 3) 전세계의 시각 Ⅲ. 브렉시트가 전세계에 미칠 영향 (영국 자체, 미국, 유럽, 일본 등) - 긍정적 시나리오와 부정적 시나리오 ················································· 37 1. 영국 ·································································································· 37 1) 금리 부문 예측 (파운드) 2) 무역 부문 (代 EU vs 비EU국) 3) 영국의 금융 산업 4) 영국의 주요 산업은 어떻게 될 것인가? 2. 유럽 ·································································································· 43 1) 유로화 향후 예측 2) 代 영국 무역 3) EU 내 강대국 (e.g. 독일, 벨기에 등) 이 받을 영향 4) EU 내 약소국 (e.g. 동유럽 변방국) 이 받을 영향 3. 미국 ·································································································· 64 1) 달러화 향후 예측 2) 代 영국 무역 3) (영국과) 경쟁자가 될 것인가? 잠재적 동반자가 될 것인가? 4. 일본 ·································································································· 68 1) 엔화 향후 예측 2) 代 영국 무역 3) (영국과) 경쟁자가 될 것인가? 잠재적 동반자가 될 것인가? 5. 중국 ·································································································· 72 1) 위안화 향후 예측 2) 代 영국 무역 3) (영국과) 경쟁자가 될 것인가? 잠재적 동반자가 될 것인가? Ⅳ. 브렉시트가 국내 산업에 미칠 영향 : 기회와 위협 ··································· 78 1. 원화 향후 예측 ··················································································· 78 2. 代 영국 무역 ······················································································ 79 3. 브렉시트가 가져올 기회 - 영국 시장 내부 EU의 약화된 영향력 ················ 81 4. 브렉시트가 가져올 기회 - EU 내 영국의 포지션 ····································· 83 5. 브렉시트가 가져올 기회 - 기타 국가 영국의 포지션 ································· 84 6. 브렉시트가 가져올 위협 - 파운드화 절상에 따른 대 영국 무역수지 약화 ···· 86 7. 브렉시트가 가져올 위협 - 전 세계적 경제 위기 도래의 가능성 ·················· 88 8. 국내 대기업의 대응 동향 ······································································ 89 9. 국내 중소 기업의 대응 방안 ·································································· 91 10. 브렉시트로 인한 유망 산업 및 기업 리스트 ··········································· 93 Ⅴ. 결론 ································································································· 96 Ⅵ. 부록 ································································································· 97 브렉시트 용어 사전 ·················································································· 97 브렉시트 관련 추천 도서 ········································································ 100 참고문헌 ······························································································· 106 |
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우리 비피기술거래는 원래는 기술에 대한 것을 많이 다루는 회사이다. 그래도 일을 수행하면서 느끼는 것은, 기술이 정책과 무관하지 않고 기술이 외교 정세나 각국의 트렌드와 무관하지 않음이다. 그래서 우리회사에서도 그리고 우리 주변에서도 브렉시트가 우리에게 가질 영향과 시사점을 고민하고 있었다.
그런데..그러면서도 느꼈던 주변에서의 한탄은 “어찌 저리 중요한 사안인데도 그것에 대해서 속시원하게 제시해주는 사람도 없고, 그에 대해서 정부건 출판계건 제시하는 것이 없냐?”는 것이다. 2016년 7월 온나라가 브렉시트로 떠들썩한 이 시점에 아무것도 이에 대한 서적이 없음에 대해서 놀랐고, 또한 그것은 나름대로의 사명감으로의 연결이 되었다. 이미 대한민국은 세계화의 큰 주역(role player)임에도 불구하고, 큰 국제적 사건에 대해서 뒤처지고 대응도 느렸다. 2008년 금융위기도 우리에게 엄청난 현실적 결과를 가져왔음에도 불구하고, 우리가 할수 있었던 것은 아무것도 없었다. 그렇다면 우리는 이번에도 또 이렇게 당하고 있을 것인가? 금번의 결정은 브렉시트에 대한 통과의 결정에 불과한 것이지, 아직은 브렉시트가 진행이 된 것도 아니다. 어쩌면 그 본격적인 경제 사회 정치적인 영향은 앞으로가 더 훨씬 걱정될 상황인지도 모른다. 또한 브렉시트의 전후의 여러가지 정치적 사회적 현상들을 보면서 이것이 우리 대한민국의 현실에도 투영되는 것이 많았음을 느끼기에, 분석하고 제시를 해봄이 필요하다고 생각했다. 예를 들어서, 선거를 앞두고의 여자 국회의원에 대한 정치 테러등에 대해서 말이다. 이 책은 보고서의 성격과 쉽게 쓴 서적의 성격 두 가지를 동시에 가지고 있다. 이를 통해서, 여러분들이 좀더 확실한 브렉시트와 국제 정세에 대한 이해를 가지고 감을 원한다. 원고 정리에 마지막까지 고생해준 손정환 전택수 연구원들에게 감사드린다. |